EO.EPHRAM OTODO

SMARRT FUND · OCTOBER 8, 2026 DATA

What sits behind
the valuation.

Our student-team presentation assesses Marriott using information available through October 8, 2026. My assigned contributions were the valuation comparison and executive summary, slides 16–17. These notes set out the valuation methods and their assumptions.

Prices stop at the October 8 close. Financial statements and forecasts carry their own dates. Figures below are in USD millions unless marked per share.

Open the presentation ↗Hiring materials ↗

OCTOBER 8 CLOSE

$361.08Historical market observation

DCF BASE

$363.01Sensitivity: $313.84–$414.40

PEER P/E MEDIAN

$310.70Peer IQR: $180.76–$409.46

01 · CASH FLOW

An explicit cash-conversion model.

The DCF uses a FCFF proxy, starting with FY2025 cash flow. Cash interest paid is added back after an assumed 26% tax rate; stock-based compensation is deducted to recognize its dilution cost. Constant cash conversion is an assumption, not a full three-statement forecast.

CFO − capital/technology spend + cash interest paid × (1 − tax rate) − stock compensation
= 3,212 − 604 + 698 × (1 − 26%) − 236 = 2,888.52
Cash conversion = 2,888.52 / FY2025 adjusted EBITDA 5,383 = 53.66%

FY2026 adjusted EBITDA uses the company’s $5,995M guidance midpoint. Growth assumptions for 2027–2031 are 8%, 7.5%, 7%, 6.5% and 6%. Only the 84/365 fraction from October 9 to December 31 enters 2026 cash flow. Later cash flows use year-end timing with actual/365 discount periods.

YearAdjusted EBITDA ($M)Growth assumptionIncluded FCFF proxy ($M)Discount years
20265,995.0Guidance midpoint740.30.230
20276,474.68.0%3,474.31.230
20286,960.27.5%3,734.82.233
20297,447.47.0%3,996.33.233
20307,931.56.5%4,256.04.233
20318,407.46.0%4,511.45.233

Historical CFO-less-capex free cash flow on slide 10 is levered cash flow. It is separate from this FCFF proxy and is not discounted directly at WACC.

02 · DISCOUNT RATE & TERMINAL VALUE

See which assumptions do the work.

WACC: 9.21%. Risk-free proxy: 5.23% from the October 8 Treasury-yield series. The 104-week beta is 0.94, shrunk toward one to 0.96. Equity risk premium is an assumed 5%; the assumed 1.05% debt spread is anchored to Marriott’s August bond pricing. Debt weight is 15.23%, using disclosed debt and October 8 equity value.

Cost of equity = risk-free rate + shrunk beta × assumed equity risk premium
Cost of debt proxy = risk-free rate + assumed credit spread
WACC = equity weight × cost of equity + debt weight × cost of debt × (1 − 26%)

Terminal EV uses 2031 adjusted EBITDA × an assumed 18× exit multiple. Base EV is $111,114.15M; $95,422.60M, or 85.88%, comes from discounted terminal value. The base depends heavily on that exit assumption.

WACC16× exit18× exit20× exit
8.71%$331.11$372.75$414.40
9.21%$322.35$363.01$403.67
9.71%$313.84$353.54$393.24

The displayed range varies WACC by ±0.5 percentage point and exit multiple from 16× to 20×. It is model sensitivity, not a probability or confidence interval.

03 · ENTERPRISE TO EQUITY

Keep the bridge dated.

Enterprise value 111,114.15 − net debt 16,453 = equity value 94,661.15
Equity value / 260.766288 million actual shares = $363.01 per share

Debt ($16,915M) and cash ($462M) are June 30 balances, published August 3. Actual shares are the July 27 count on the 10-Q cover. They are the latest disclosed proxies used here; they are not measured October 8 balances. Every additional $1B of net debt reduces this value by about $3.83 per share.

The September revolver increase to $5B is a commitment. August’s $1.25B notes supplied about $1.233B net proceeds. Neither figure is automatically an equal addition to net debt. The simplified EV comparison excludes leases, minority interests and non-operating investments consistently.

04 · PEER VALUATION

Use the same price and share unit.

October 8 USD closing prices divide by interpolated next-twelve-month (NTM) consensus EPS. EPS uses 84/365 of FY2026 and 281/365 of FY2027. Estimates were archived before the October 8 open; they are generally on a provider-adjusted earnings basis, not guaranteed identical GAAP adjustments.

TickerOct. 8 priceFY2026 EPSFY2027 EPSNTM EPSNTM P/E
MAR$361.08$11.734$13.158$12.83028.14×
HLT$323.29$9.043$10.455$10.13031.91×
H$159.43$3.594$4.872$4.57834.82×
IHG$159.48$5.966$6.771$6.58624.22×
WH$73.36$4.797$5.330$5.20714.09×
CHH$104.82$7.013$7.577$7.44714.07×

Peers: HLT, H, IHG, WH and CHH; MAR is excluded from the peer distribution. IHG’s NYSE USD depositary share represents one ordinary share, matching the archived USD EPS. Travel + Leisure is a timeshare benchmark, excluded from these peers.

MAR NTM EPS = (84/365 × 11.73445) + (281/365 × 13.15768) = 12.830142
Peer multiples: 25th percentile 14.0885× · median 24.2165× · 75th percentile 31.9140×
Multiply each by MAR NTM EPS: $180.76 · $310.70 · $409.46

The five-peer interquartile range describes dispersion; it is not a statistical confidence band. Different business mixes and earnings adjustments limit comparability.

05 · FOOTBALL FIELD & CONCLUSION

Four bars, four meanings.

The 52-week intraday range is $256.76–410.98 from October 9, 2025 through October 8, 2026. The DCF bar is sensitivity. The peer bar is multiple dispersion. Analyst opinion is a separate $280–425 range, mean $380.80 from 25 contributors in the October 8 preopen Yahoo archive.

The conclusion is watchlist. The DCF base is only 0.53% above the $361.08 close, while the peer median is 13.95% below. A conditional $345 entry with an 8% planned stop gives a $317.40 stop level. Upside to the DCF base is 5.22%, or 0.65× planned risk. A stop does not guarantee a maximum loss.

This is student investment analysis. No fund trade or realized return is claimed.

06 · SOURCES

Public source references.

Historical prices were retrieved after October 8, with later observations excluded. Original forecast update dates are not exposed by the archive; its saved date establishes availability. Technical charts use unadjusted closes, 20-session Bollinger Bands with population standard deviation, and Wilder RSI14. Beta uses weekly MAR adjusted returns versus S&P 500 price returns, with 104 completed weeks ending October 2.